Hype Meter
Arsene Wenger reckons 80 points will be enough to win the championship this season. This is mostly down to the heightened competition for ‘Top 4′ places this season, with Man City, Aston Villa and Tottenham all in the mix this season.
Heck, even Sunderland will have a say in things this term, but it still doesn’t stop the fact a good run by any of the title-contenders could see them run home with about 85 points.
So, in this blogger’s humble opinion, that’s the target for the season.
The Hype Meter, then, takes up the overhyped forecast of possible points to get from the season before it began, versus the target of 85 points to win a title.
The equation is simple: League points gained, divided by points expected.
The resulting percentage gives an idea how ‘on track’ Arsenal are. 85 points over 96 is 88.5 per cent.
So anything above 88.5 is title winning form!
Current ‘hype’ reading: 61/75 81.3%
August
- Everton A (Expected: 1) RESULT: 3
- Portsmouth H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
- Man Utd A (Expected: 1) RESULT: 0
September
- Man City A (Expected: 1) RESULT: 0
- Wigan Ath H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
- Fulham A (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
October
- Blackburn H (Expected : 3) RESULT: 3
- Birmingham H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
- West Ham A (Expected: 1) RESULT: 1
- Sp*rs H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
November
- Wolves A (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
- Sunderland A (Expected: 3) RESULT: 0
- Chelsea H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 0
December
- Stoke H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
- Liverpool A (Expected: 1) RESULT: 3
- Burnley A (Expected: 3) RESULT: 1
- Hull City H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
- Aston Villa H (Expectd: 3) RESULT: 3
- Portsmouth A (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
January
- Everton H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 1
- Bolton A (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
- Bolton H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
- Aston Villa A (Expected: 3) RESULT: 1
- Man Utd H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 0
February
- Chelsea A (Expected: 1) RESULT: 0
- Liverpool H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
- Sunderland H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
- Stoke City A (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
March
- Burnley H (Expected: 3) RESULT: 3
- Hull City A (Expected: 3)
- West Ham H (Expected: 3)
- Birmingham A (Expected: 3)
April
- Wolves H (Expected: 3)
- Sp*rs A (Expected: 0)
- Wigan Ath A (Expected: 3)
- Man City H (Expected: 3)
May
- Blackburn A (Expected: 3)
- Fulham H (Expected: 3)
[...] Nothing we haven’t heard before, but it’s funny how it’s gotten more and more believable as time as worn on. This all despite two losses up in Manchester, and the outlook appears rather rosy. Sure, it’s only 8 games, but you look at even the most wildly optimistic speculated points tally before the season, and surprisingly, we remain on track. [...]
[...] far, so very good this season. As you can see by even the hopelessly-optimistic Hype Meter©®™ has Arsenal at ‘100%’ – on track for a title-tilt. Our losses at [...]
[...] gathered a bit of pace and I’m sure I’m not the only one uncomfortable with too much hype. I’d rather this team just knuckle down and keep doing the good things they’ve done so [...]
Hey , good job !
this is something unique u have done , and its quite realistic !
Only complaint I have is for Sp**s away game , u expect 0 ?.
I expect nothing less than f*ing 3 points after our performance at home !!!
I’m glad someone finally noticed, Suhas
. After putting that list of predictions together, I realised I hadn’t predicted a single loss. So I put Shite Hart Lane in there as a bit of a pisstake. It’s mostly down to my fear that one day – —one day—- we’ll finally lose a league game to the Scum. It took Wenger more than a decade to lose to a Championship side (Burnley, last season), so maybe even longer for an even worse team?
[...] Hype Meter [...]
“85 points over 96 is 88.5 per cent.”
Where did you get that figure 96 from?
The second link in the article:
http://www.third-gen.com/2009/06/17/month-by-month-fixture-analysis-arsenal-could-storm-200910/
Also, if you add up all the ‘expected’, you get 96. Almost deliberately over-optimistic. But heck, we’re making a fist of it.
I think the ‘expected’ points shouldn’t just be judged based on your gut feelings, but rather on statistics. If you are bothered enough, try to gather our results from previous matches with the teams.
Don’t think i’m articulating it well enough.
For example, the last 7 matches at Old Trafford, on average, let’s say we have only managed to get 1 point there. Therefore, the expected points should be 1 for Manure vs Arsenal fixture. Do this for other teams, and you’ll get a more realistic expected points.
Also, it’d be interesting to see whether our title winning seasons matched the hype meter, or came close to 100%. I think during the Invincibles era, I’d be unsurprised if it was more than 100%, i.e actual points were more than the expected points.
Sorry, I did quantitative subjects during my uni years, hence some of the language used are a bit …. sophisticiated.